Diontae Johnson has not had the best start with the Carolina Panthers but Week 3 may give fantasy managers cause for optimism. While Johnson has seen the highest target share with Bryce Young under center (6 per game), the WR has only 5 catches for 34 yards.
While Andy Dalton might not sound like the QB to revitalize Carolina’s offense, he might see them to better days over the next few weeks. The Panthers have been battered in their opening games, and while he has not played well, it is not solely Bryce Young’s fault.
Andy Dalton has better passing stats than Young (even when focusing on the latter years of his career), with Young averaging 173.4 yards per game in Carolina. Dalton has regressed with age and has backed up some struggling offenses too.
In his last year as the starter in Cincinnati (2019), Dalton averaged 268.8 ypg (but the Bengals did go 2-14), and across three seasons with the Cowboys, Bears and Saints, he averaged 198.7.
Dalton made one start in Carolina last season, and it was an improved offensive day, however, they did lose 37-23 to Seattle. Dalton completed 34 passes from 58 attempts for 361 yards and 2 TDs, and WR1 Adam Theilen had 11 receptions for 145 yards and 1 TD. This feels very promising for Diontae Johnson and Adam Theilen.
As per Statmuse, the Panthers have allowed four sacks in two games, which is not bad at all, however, Dalton does not have Young’s mobility. Expect Dalton to get the ball out of his hands quickly when pressured, so short to medium passes to tight ends and Diontae Johnson seem probable.
In short, Diontae Johnson should see an uptick in volume and can be started as a WR2 or flex option in Week 3, where the Panthers travel to play the Las Vegas Raiders.
What numbers to expect from Diontae Johnson in Week 3?
This is a bit trickier, and it would be lazy to expect a similar game to last year for Andy Dalton and stick Diontae Johnson’s name over Adam Thielen’s. That likely won’t be the case and 11 receptions is highly unlikely. That said, 9 targets and 6 receptions seem viable for the WR1.
Regardless of the game script, expect Johnson to record at least 65 yards through the air and this feels like a game where he could get on the board for the first time in Carolina. Expect him to surpass his lowly 6.58 point projections (HPPR) and a touchdown would push him to a high ceiling.
Range: 7-18 points
Prediction: 11 points (HPPR)