Fantasy managers who picked up Justin Fields when Russell Wilson was ruled out of Week 1 are likely at the point of discarding the Pittsburgh Steelers QB. Meanwhile, Geno Smith owners are likely wondering how high the Seattle Seahawks QB’s ceiling could be, following two 17-point displays.
Looking at the two, Geno Smith profiles to be a safer pick than Justin Fields in Week 3, here’s why:
Justin Fields’ Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
While Justin Fields has been a terror in the running game throughout his career, the Steelers offense has done just enough to squeeze to 2-0. Pittsburgh has scored 31 points across two games, and Fields has 23.32 fantasy points, a disappointing return.
The first thing to note is that the Steelers show no sign of swapping in Russell Wilson and are keen to go on with the not-quite-hot hand, Justin Fields. So at present, there seems no danger of him being benched.
However, Fields has not shown enough to be confidently started in fantasy. While Fields’ previous years’ rushing highlights stick in the memory, the Steelers’ offense does not play clean, high-octane football and hasn’t for a few years.
Justin Fields is projected 13.40 points in his first home game as a Steelers, and given that the LA Chargers have only conceded 13 points in two matches, Fields is a risky pick. This seems a low projection and he could surpass it, but it is worth noting that he has yet to break 12 points with Pittsburgh.
Expectations should be tempered in what could be another low-scoring, defensive battle from the Steelers. Fields may rush for a TD or throw for one, but the odds of him having 2 TDs and 300 total yards aren’t great.
Points range – 10-18; Projection – 14.5 points.
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Geno Smith’s Week 3 Fantasy Outlook
Geno Smith and the Seattle Seahawks escaped with an overtime win against the New England Patriots last Sunday, and one of the main highlights was a 56-yard D.K. Metcalf TD. This helped Smith record a 327-yard passing day and 17.88 points, and the QB surpassed his projections with ease for a second consecutive week,
Week 3 sees the Seahawks face the Miami Dolphins, which profiles to be a strange game. The Dolphins have put Tua Tagovailoa on the IR, and unless some last-second Ryan Tannehill chaos ensues, are set to start Skylar Thompson (or Tyler Huntley) at QB.
This obviously hurts Miami fantasy outlooks, but it could have an effect on Seahawks too via the game script. If the Dolphins can’t get going on offense, Seattle will take the lead and run both the ball and the clock. The odds of a shoutout seem low, and this profiles to be either a comfortable Seahawks win or a low-scorer.
Geno Smith has been relatively good with turnovers in Seattle, having a solid 57-22 TD-INT ratio. As such, he seems a safe bet to get at least one passing TD here and in a run-first game, avoid an INT.
With 171 passing yards in Week 1 and 327 in Week 2, expect Smith to split the difference and have around 250 yards and 1 TD as a baseline. He feels a good pick to surpass his projections of 14.29 points, as he does frequently add a few yards in the running game too (38 yards in 2 games).
Point range: 13-20; Prediction – 17.5 points.
Also read: Fantasy Football Week 3 Defense Rankings & Streamers ft. Bucs, Chargers, Raiders & Patriots