Alvin Kamara has been one of the premiere running backs in the NFL for multiple years, and despite missing the first three weeks of the season, finished as the RB14 in 2023 (HPPR leagues). Kamara averaged 15.0 points per game, which ranked fifth among running backs, a notch above Travis Etienne.
The New Orleans Saints drafted Kendre Miller in 2023, but he spent the majority of the season injured. Kamara is the RB1 in New Orleans, and even if Miller sees some carries, will get the majority of snaps.
One concern from last season was in the form of goalline offense, as the Saints adopted a Taysom Hill method for short-yardage situations. This resulted in 4 TDs for Hill that Kamara owners would have wanted.
Alvin Kamara finished the season with 694 yards and 5 TDs on the ground, which was complimented by 75 receptions, 466 yards and 1 TD through the air. With no suspension hanging over him in 2024, Kamara should be in for a better season, especially with the Saints having a year of XP with Derek Carr and looking to build on a disappointing 2023.
Kamara has never broken 1,000 yards on the ground in a season, so while this will likely be a personal target for him, it is difficult to predict it happening with confidence. Kamara has also never played a 17-game season, so expect him to miss at least one game in 2024. Presuming he stays healthy and plays at least 15 games, here is a prediction for Alvin Kamara:
900 yards and 5 TDs rushing, 550 yards, 2 TDs receiving
Where to take Alvin Kamara in 2024 NFL fantasy drafts?
Alvin Kamara is being slept on in 2024. With Kendre Miller being expected to have a currently undefined role in the offense, Kamara has an average draft position of No. 48 as the RB17 in the NFL.
This seems really low and presuming he stays healthy, Kamara will almost certainly outperform these expectations. This means that depending on your league size, Kamara should be available in the fourth round, and if so, should be terrific value there.
The later you can leave it the better, as if you can get other high-profile pieces first and then land Kamara in the late third or fourth, he could easily be your RB1 on the season.
You might like other RB fantasy outlooks: Rhamondre Stevenson, Tony Pollard, Derrick Henry and Bijan Robinson.