The Houston Texans made a lot of noise in the 2023 NFL season. C.J. Stroud‘s rookie campaign and the additions of Stefon Diggs and Joe Mixon suggest they think their Super Bowl window may be open.
This could be great news for NFL fantasy players, but when it comes to receivers, the Texans have three high-quality options. This means that competition for targets should be fierce and with a player like Diggs, tempers could flare. Let’s take a look at the Texans’ main three WRs fantasy outlooks:
Stefon Diggs’ 2024 NFL Fantasy Outlook
Stefon Diggs is the WR1 on Houston’s depth chart, but he profiles as a WR2 with considerable upside in fantasy. Due to a poor second half of the 2023 season and competition for targets with Nico Collins and Tank Dell, Diggs’ average draft position is No. 37 as the WR25 (via FantasyPros).
This may seem low and it is, and given Diggs’ history of letting his frustrations be known on the sidelines, Stroud could look to him often for an easy life. That, however, is speculative at best, and while Diggs could see a higher target volume than Collins or Dell, you should be looking to him in the fourth round of fantasy drafts and no earlier.
Expect Stefon Diggs to have a decent season in a pass-heavy offense, but unless injuries remove Collins or Dell from the equation, Diggs profiles to be boom/bust every week with a high ceiling or a disappointing floor.
Prediction: 1,000 yards and 6 TDs
Nico Collins’ 2024 NFL Fantasy Outlook
Nico Collins was on fire in 2023, finishing the season with 80 receptions for 1,297 yards and 8 TDs in 15 games. There are two ways of looking at his odds of repeating these numbers, what with Stefon Diggs at WR1 and such a talented WR3 in Tank Dell.
This could mean that as the WR2, Collins has more favorable looks and coverage and could be the deep threat from last season picking up 50-plus-yard TDs regularly. Or it could mean he sees a lower target volume and in general, has a down year.
Interestingly, Collins is expected to go before Diggs in fantasy drafts, with an ADP of 25 as the WR15. This makes him a risk in the early third round and there may be more reliable options around at that time. Collins should be drafted over Diggs due to his and Stroud’s 2023 chemistry and the general feeling that Diggs might not be part of Houston’s long-term plans.
A reasonable prediction for Collins would be 1,000 yards and 6 TDs, but he could easily swing 300 yards and multiple TDs either way of that mark.
Tank Dell’s 2024 NFL Fantasy Outlook
Third on the depth chart is Tank Dell, an elite route runner coming off a terrific rookie season, which was, unfortunately, marred by injuries. Dell played 11 games and recorded 47 receptions for 709 yards and 7 TDs, looking elite in the process.
Tank Dell’s ADP is No. 57 as the WR30, and it would be reasonable to expect his snap count and target volume to be less than that of Stefon Diggs and Nico Collins. This doesn’t mean he is not worth picking up, as he could be a tremendous asset in the flex, in favorable matchups, or if Diggs or Collins suffer injuries.
Given just how good Dell can be, and how his route running can be utilized in the red zone, he should be looked to in the fifth round as a WR2 or preferably, a flex option. Dell could be in for an even share of big and quiet weeks, which makes him a risk in 2024.
Prediction: 850 yards, 5 TDs.
Other WR fantasy outlooks: George Pickens, Davante Adams, Diontae Johnson, Drake London & Terry McLaurin.